Product Launch

Microsoft's November 2006 Product Launches

Whenever a new product is launched, a positive reception is preferred. Instead, two newspaper reports were not kind. After five years since the Windows XP launch, Vista was released to businesses today. The Associated Press article included:

Acknowledging Windows Vista's delays, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer kicked off a demonstration of the software by saying "it's an exciting thing to finally be here" and adding: "This is the biggest launch in our company's history, that's for sure."

My recollection is that the Microsoft 95 launch was a significantly more exciting event. People lined up at midnight to purchase the first copies. I attended a remote telecast of the ceremonies. I got a tee shirt and other gifts. I was excited to be a part of the event and load the new operating system.

Office 2007 was released today and the published quote from a target buyer included:

Just about the only Office program Rodriguez still uses is PowerPoint for presentations.

"To me, Office 2007 is a complete non-event. I have no interest in an upgrade," he said. "Most of what I like about computing now lives online."

Here is a portion of the Chicago Sun Times'  Zune article

"Avoid," is my general message. The Zune is a square wheel, a product that's so absurd and so obviously immune to success that it evokes something akin to a sense of pity.

Wow. These are such harsh comments, that one would expect some heads to roll at Microsoft. However, I predict that this will not happen.

A few decades ago, there was cautionary advice "Do not buy anything from Microsoft until it makes it to Version 3." Although it started as a joke, the wealth that Microsoft has accumulated speaks to a characteristic of their company. They always take longer than expected to finish products. Even by Version 3, the products are not outstanding. By such metrics as percent market share and revenue, their products have been a success.

The caution is, do not try this approach at your company.  Microsoft has deeper pockets than just about anyone. They have been the entrenched standard in business and homes. They can afford to be patient.

The good new for the rest of us is that we have the opportunity to innovate and delight potential customers.

Is a crowded trade show booth a good thing?

I enjoy analyzing the dynamics at trade show booths. A trade show booth is a temporary embassy for a company. It can provide a glimpse of your team or company. Sometime it provides a glimpse of what is valued at your company.

At almost every trade show, there is at least one booth that employs a very noticeable gimmick to draw a crowd. Magicians, actors, and models in the booth are popular choices. Last month, a booth manager told me that he was using card games and a roulette wheel at his booth to "help attendees have a good time" So much for first impressions. More subtle gimmicks (also known as premiums or trinkets or incentives) include candy or other giveaways. How many times have you had a chance to win an iPod this year in exchange for providing your contact information?

After listening to a James Surowieki 2005 IT Conversations presentation, I had a few more insights into the Wisdom of Crowds. Sometimes there is wisdom but many times crowds are dumb. This is part of the message in Surowieki's best selling book, The Wisdom of Crowds.

Dumb crowds can form through an information cascade mechanism. Surowieki described a scenario where there are equally good choices such as two restaurants. The initial condition is that both establishments have no customers at the start of the lunch rush. Without any inside information about either restaurant, the first group of patrons randomly selects one of the restaurants. The next group of potential patrons notices that one restaurant is empty and the other has a small group of customers. They select the restaurant that already has some customers because it seems like a safer choice. The next groups of patrons continue to make the choice that is perceived to be "safer." Soon, one restaurant is bustling with customers and seems to capture the more favorable reputation.

The information cascade is promoted by a characteristic herd behavior in humans. It’s a way to appear reasonable. Often, the "safe" thing to do is imitate.  It is one particular decision trap.

Trade show booth gimmicks are likely to produce low quality leads. Preferentially, these booths have visitors known as trick-or-treaters, literature collectors, or nomadic trade show attendees. These are the folks that get a free bag from one vendor and fill it with all the free stuff they can collect.

If your company is giving away bags, at least make sure that your logo can be prominently seen as these mobile billboards are carried all over the trade show floor.

Differentiate trinkets and samples
If you have a good product, giving away samples of your product is a good option. This allows potential customers to experience your product. If you have a good product and a company that needs to grow their brand, items such as shirts or cups with your logo are another good option.

Usually, gimmicks put a strain on the booth staff that should be focusing on more important stuff.

The next time that you see a lot of traffic at a trade show booth, analyze the dynamics. Is your staff on the way to setting a new record for the number of low quality leads collected or is your booth a great way to advance your customer's buying process?